Abstract:
Rainfall is a climate event that causes significant damage both in natural environment and human live. Rainfall forecast is an important issue in water resource planning. Due to seasonal behaviour of rainfall, fourierseries model was fitted to the mean monthly rainfall series inSouth-Eastern region of Nigeria, in which R2 = 0.74for both Enugu and Owerri inSouth-Eastern region of Nigeria. By examining thecorrelogram of residual associated with the model we found out that it shows no periodic oscillating nature of time series for both residual series associated after fitting fourier series model to the mean monthly rainfall.Also that there are no significanttrend between residual and the dependent variables, and no significant trend between residual and independent variables.Hence we use fourier series model fitted to obtain some forecast.The forecasted values and observation values are close.
