Abstract:
Buffalo River is an important water resource in the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa. The potential risks of infection constituted by exposure to human enteric viruses in the Buffalo River and three source water dams along its course were assessed using mean values and static quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA). The daily risks of infection determined by the exponential model [for human adenovirus (HAdV) and enterovirus (EnV)] and the beta-Poisson model (for hepatitis A virus (HAV) and rotavirus (RoV)) varied with sites and exposure scenario. The estimated daily risks of infection values at the sites where the respective viruses were detected, ranged from 7.31 9 10-3 to 1 (for HAdV), 4.23 9 10-2 to 6.54 9 10-1 (RoV), 2.32 9 10-4 to 1.73 9 10-1 (HAV) and 1.32 9 10-4 to 5.70 9 10-2 (EnV). The yearly risks of infection in individuals exposed to the river/dam water via drinking, recreational, domestic or irrigational activities were unacceptably high, exceeding the acceptable risk of 0.01 % (10-4 infection/person/year), and the guideline value used as by several nations for drinking water. The risks of illness and death from infection ranged from 6.58 9 10-5 to 5.0 9 10-1 and 6.58 9 10-9 to 5.0 9 10-5, respectively. The threats here are heightened by the high mortality rates for HAV, and its endemicity in South Africa. Therefore, we conclude that the Buffalo River and its source water dams are a public health hazard. The QMRA presented here is the first of its kinds in the Eastern Cape Province and provides the building block for a quantitatively oriented local guideline for water quality management in the Province.
